Don Bacon is out. Who's in?

Congressman Don Bacon speaks to a guest at a campaign event in Oct. 2024.

Don Bacon is out. Who’s in?

Omaha’s worst-kept secret is out: after hinting back in April that he might be considering retirement, Don Bacon is apparently set to announce formally that his fifth term will be his last.

Nebraska’s narrowly divided Second District has been increasingly in the spotlight, particularly when, in 2020 and 2024, the infamous Blue Dot sent one of Nebraska’s five electoral votes to the Democrats.

Bacon has been able to buck the trend, earning more votes in Nebraska’s Second District than President Trump did at the top of the ticket. Bacon has split with Trump on several issues over the years, leading to primary challenges in 2022 and 2024. While MAGA influencers are celebrating as Bacon steps down, Democrats have been lining up candidates for another chance at flipping the seat in 2026. Who do Republicans have on their bench to take the field this time?

Betting on Brett?

At the top of the list of contenders is former state senator Brett Lindstrom. Lindstrom served in the Nebraska Legislature for eight years, representing District 18. Then he ran for governor in 2022. While he came in third behind Jim Pillen and Charles Herbster in a sharply divided primary, he performed best in the urban corridors of Lincoln and Omaha and even garnered an endorsement from Mayor Jean Stothert.

He also garnered support from Democrats during his race, notably from Brad Ashford, who would also go on to endorse Don Bacon, as well as Bob Krist. Thousands of Democrats appeared to change voter registration during the 2022 campaign, prompting Pillen campaign manager Kenny Zoeller to suggest Democrats might be trying to throw the election to “the most liberal candidate, Brett Lindstrom.”

This crossover appeal worked as a strength for Don Bacon, however, who relied on support from moderate Democrats in an increasingly blue district to keep his seat.

Brinker Harding’s Congressional Pivot

Omaha District 6 city councilmember Brinker Harding speaks to guests at the River City Republicans’ luncheon in June.

As far back as a year ago, there was speculation that Omaha City Council member Aimee Melton was interested in running for Congress. An amendment on the ballot for Omaha city elections in 2025 seemed to suggest this was in the works. Previously, a vacancy on the city council would be filled by a vote of the city council, which is currently controlled by Democrats. The amendment changed that process, now stating that within the first two years of a councilmember’s term, a vacancy would trigger a special election to let voters in the district choose the replacement.

This would prevent a situation where Melton’s seat could be held by a Democrat for the majority of her term, should she resign to serve in the House.

Since the election, however, it seems District 6 City Councilmember Brinker Harding is the one positioning for a run. Harding made an unexpected appearance at a River City Republicans luncheon on June 18, an event he had not attended in recent memory, even during his run for city council. Members of his campaign staff also solicited members of the Douglas County Republican Party to walk with him during the Elkhorn Days parade, which occurred after the election. Flyover Strategies, a political consulting firm founded by former Bacon campaign managers Derek Oden and Matthew Zacher, also managed Harding’s city council campaign. They would be valuable allies in a race for Bacon’s seat.

Third time’s the charm for Dan Frei?

Dan Frei holding a campaign-themed onesie to announce a new grandchild during his campaign night concession speech.

There has been some recent speculation that Dan Frei may return to run for Bacon’s seat. Frei ran a primary challenge against Lee Terry in 2014 and returned to run a last-minute grassroots campaign against Don Bacon in 2024. While his 24-point loss in the primary was decisive, it was also the most successful primary challenge Bacon had faced, including his first against Chip Maxwell in 2016.

Earlier this week, the profile picture and cover photo for the Dan Frei campaign page were unexpectedly updated, quickly leading to comments encouraging a run. “This is the man to replace Bacon!” “We need you!” and “Dan Frei for Nebraska and America! Backing him all the way. No greasy stuff here.” filled the comments section.

Behind the scenes, however, another run for Congress was decidedly not in the works. An insider described these updates as someone other than Frei “stirring the pot” and told me that there is no chance Dan Frei will be entering the race. A need to spend time with family members was one of the primary reasons.

The Race is On

Regardless of who enters the race, it will be an uphill battle for a Republican newcomer to hold Bacon’s seat. Margins of victory for the congressman have been slimmer with each passing election, and a non-incumbent candidate will likely have a more difficult race.

Democratic challengers include Denise Powell and State Senator John Cavanaugh. Crystal Rhoades, who was instrumental in John Ewing’s victory in the Omaha mayor’s race, may soon throw her hat into the ring as well.

Now more than ever, Republicans will have to find a way to unite if they hope to hold Nebraska’s Second District in the midterms. Otherwise, the “Blue Dot” will have its own member of Congress, and likely a House majority to oppose President Trump in his two remaining years in office.